Atlantic hurricane predictions lowered
Tuesday, August 8, 2006; Posted: 12:10 p.m. EDT (16:10 GMT)
Tropical Storm Chris is the third storm to form in the Atlantic this season.
MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season should be slightly less active than originally predicted, but still above long-term averages, federal forecasters said Tuesday as they warned coastal residents not to let their guard down.
Forecasters now expect there to be 12-15 named storms and seven to nine hurricanes, three to four of which could be major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour), the National Hurricane Center and other National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration agencies said.
Government scientists made their first prediction in May, saying the season could produce 13-16 named storms, and eight to 10 hurricanes, four to six of which could become major.
There have been only three tropical storms and no hurricanes so far, but August through October are typically the most active months of the season. (Watch as forecasters track hurricanes in the Atlantic -- 2:28)
"As we approach the peak of the hurricane season, our message remains the same, be informed and be prepared," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center.
"Preventing the loss of life and minimizing property damage from hurricanes are responsibilities shared by all. Remember, one hurricane hitting your neighborhood is enough to make it a bad season."
The revision follows that of forecasters at Colorado State University, who updated their forecast Thursday. They reduced their storm estimate from nine hurricanes, five of them major, to seven, with three to five major ones. The forecasters had initially called for 17 named storms, but now predict 15.
The two forecasts still would make this season busier than long-term averages, but in line with an increase in the Atlantic that started in 1995. Federal forecasters say warmer waters, more moisture and other conditions have been responsible for that increase, which they say could last for another decade or more.
Between 1995 and 2005, the Atlantic has averaged 15 named storms, just over eight named hurricanes and four major hurricanes, according to the hurricane center. Long-term averages are 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major ones.
In 2005, National Hurricane Center forecasters initially predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms, with seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes, and three to five of those hurricanes being major.
The season turned out to be much worse, breaking records with 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes and seven major ones. Hurricane Katrina was the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history, killing more than 1,500 and wiping out parts of the Gulf Coast.
Hurricane season began June 1 and ends November 30.
